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Listen "NFL Week 5 Best Bets, Live Betting Strategies & SNF Patriots vs Bills Preview | Coach and Company 10/5/25"
Episode Synopsis
Full Podcast Summary / Notes (Timestamped)
[00:00:00] - Introduction & Sunday Morning Game Action:
Mike Pendleton (Mikey P) hosts alongside numbers expert Sebas.
Discusses the early Sunday overseas Browns vs Vikings game with low betting action and unexciting QB matchup (Carson Wentz vs Dylan Gabriel).
Sebas explains live betting trends, prop betting on low passing yards, and early movement—or lack thereof—for the morning slot.
[00:04:00] – Browns & Vikings Player Props & Shador Sanders Odds:
Both QBs listed at under 200 passing yards—a rare case for the NFL.
Expectation of a run-heavy, low-scoring game; live betting updates with 7-7 tie in the first.
Shador Sanders’ odds to play this season: long shot (not expected before Week 10+).
[00:05:30] – Best Bets Kickoff:
Sebas gives his best bets:
Broncos vs Eagles OVER 43.5 points.
Alvin Kamara OVER 72.5 rushing + receiving yards (explains matchup advantages).
Mike’s best bets:
Giants moneyline (believes in Jackson Dart’s legs to shake up the NY offense).
Derrick Henry 20+ rushing attempts.
Baker Mayfield OVER 230 passing yards with Bucky Irving out.
Chargers vs Commanders OVER 47.5 points.
[00:09:30] – DG’s Kicker Parlay & Live Bets:
Breakdown of a unique two-field-goal parlay (Schrader, Aubrey, Ryland).
Live game: Browns vs Vikings 7-7 at start of 2nd quarter.
[00:11:00] – Line Movement Update & Game Totals:
Sharps and public bets are impacting totals in Dallas vs Giants/Jets and Detroit vs Cincinnati, with key opening-to-closing line swings.
[00:12:30] – Listener Questions & New York Teams Outlook:
Live chat: Thoughts on Dallas vs Jets spread (Sebas leans toward caution, expects low scoring unless Jets step up).
Mike is bullish on all three New York teams (Jets, Giants, Bills) pulling wins today.
[00:13:00] – Eagles vs Broncos Deep Dive:
Review of Eagles strategy, “tush push” formation creativity, and line holding at Eagles -4.
Expecting a strong Eagles offense, with attention on A.J. Brown’s vocal demands for the ball and how sportsbooks and bettors react to such superstar sentiments.
Sebas gives inside scoop: Books adjust props when star players speak up, often skewing value.
[00:17:00] – Team & Player Prop Strategies:
Proceed with caution on superstar props after big media buzz.
Suggestions to pivot to secondary options like Devonta Smith or Dallas Goedert props for value.
Broncos props to consider: Bo Nix rushing attempts/yards, J.K. Dobbins rushing/receiving combined (caution flagged as a possible “trap” line).
[00:21:30] – Ravens vs Texans (QB Changes & Betting Angles):
Lamar Jackson out, Cooper Rush in as Ravens’ QB.
Sebas suggests a live betting or pass approach; points out that point spread would be -9.5 with Lamar, now +1.5 without him.
C.J. Stroud’s continued struggles labeled as “the curse of Ohio State QBs”.
[00:27:00] – Buccaneers vs Seahawks (Top Game of the Week):
Injuries discussed—no Bucky Irving for Bucs, impacts on Baker Mayfield props.
Sebas tips Seahawks defense as difference-maker.
Listener chat: Hidden gems like Woody Marks, Cam Scatterboo, and advice on handling rising rookies/new feature players.
[00:33:00] – QB Props: Darnold vs Mayfield:
Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield both projected to go over passing props.
Team total over for Seahawks and Patriots as sleeper overs for bettors.
[00:34:30] – Chargers vs Commanders Preview & Prop Targets:
Chargers plan to run more to protect Herbert; Commanders have Jaden Daniels returning, but mobility limited by a knee brace.
Receiving prop caution for Zach Ertz (juice too high); value plays on Debo Samuel receptions.
[00:39:00] – In-Game Updates & Live Bets:
Browns vs Vikings game remains 7-7 late in the first half—defensive stalemate and ugly offensive play.
[00:41:30] – SNF Preview: Patriots vs Bills:
Bills debut new “icy white” uniforms against Patriots.
Both hosts expect a close game; FanDuel and DraftKings post 8.5 line to attract teaser parlay action, but Buffalo is predicted to win by 6 or less.
Prop recommendations: Drake May (Patriots) OVER passing yards, both QBs to throw INTs, James Cook OVER 72.5 rushing yards.
[00:46:00] – Closing Best Bets & Final Thoughts:
Recap of best bet picks from both hosts (Broncos/Eagles over, Kamara over, Giants ML, Derrick Henry carries over, Mayfield passing over, Chargers/Commanders over, DG’s kicker parlay).
Fun fact: “Nine of the Broncos’ last 10 games after a win have gone over the total.”
Closing thoughts: Chargers/Commanders and Buccaneers/Seahawks tabbed as most exciting games, optimism for a kick-back Sunday without Bears’ obligation for Mike.
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[00:00:00] - Introduction & Sunday Morning Game Action:
Mike Pendleton (Mikey P) hosts alongside numbers expert Sebas.
Discusses the early Sunday overseas Browns vs Vikings game with low betting action and unexciting QB matchup (Carson Wentz vs Dylan Gabriel).
Sebas explains live betting trends, prop betting on low passing yards, and early movement—or lack thereof—for the morning slot.
[00:04:00] – Browns & Vikings Player Props & Shador Sanders Odds:
Both QBs listed at under 200 passing yards—a rare case for the NFL.
Expectation of a run-heavy, low-scoring game; live betting updates with 7-7 tie in the first.
Shador Sanders’ odds to play this season: long shot (not expected before Week 10+).
[00:05:30] – Best Bets Kickoff:
Sebas gives his best bets:
Broncos vs Eagles OVER 43.5 points.
Alvin Kamara OVER 72.5 rushing + receiving yards (explains matchup advantages).
Mike’s best bets:
Giants moneyline (believes in Jackson Dart’s legs to shake up the NY offense).
Derrick Henry 20+ rushing attempts.
Baker Mayfield OVER 230 passing yards with Bucky Irving out.
Chargers vs Commanders OVER 47.5 points.
[00:09:30] – DG’s Kicker Parlay & Live Bets:
Breakdown of a unique two-field-goal parlay (Schrader, Aubrey, Ryland).
Live game: Browns vs Vikings 7-7 at start of 2nd quarter.
[00:11:00] – Line Movement Update & Game Totals:
Sharps and public bets are impacting totals in Dallas vs Giants/Jets and Detroit vs Cincinnati, with key opening-to-closing line swings.
[00:12:30] – Listener Questions & New York Teams Outlook:
Live chat: Thoughts on Dallas vs Jets spread (Sebas leans toward caution, expects low scoring unless Jets step up).
Mike is bullish on all three New York teams (Jets, Giants, Bills) pulling wins today.
[00:13:00] – Eagles vs Broncos Deep Dive:
Review of Eagles strategy, “tush push” formation creativity, and line holding at Eagles -4.
Expecting a strong Eagles offense, with attention on A.J. Brown’s vocal demands for the ball and how sportsbooks and bettors react to such superstar sentiments.
Sebas gives inside scoop: Books adjust props when star players speak up, often skewing value.
[00:17:00] – Team & Player Prop Strategies:
Proceed with caution on superstar props after big media buzz.
Suggestions to pivot to secondary options like Devonta Smith or Dallas Goedert props for value.
Broncos props to consider: Bo Nix rushing attempts/yards, J.K. Dobbins rushing/receiving combined (caution flagged as a possible “trap” line).
[00:21:30] – Ravens vs Texans (QB Changes & Betting Angles):
Lamar Jackson out, Cooper Rush in as Ravens’ QB.
Sebas suggests a live betting or pass approach; points out that point spread would be -9.5 with Lamar, now +1.5 without him.
C.J. Stroud’s continued struggles labeled as “the curse of Ohio State QBs”.
[00:27:00] – Buccaneers vs Seahawks (Top Game of the Week):
Injuries discussed—no Bucky Irving for Bucs, impacts on Baker Mayfield props.
Sebas tips Seahawks defense as difference-maker.
Listener chat: Hidden gems like Woody Marks, Cam Scatterboo, and advice on handling rising rookies/new feature players.
[00:33:00] – QB Props: Darnold vs Mayfield:
Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield both projected to go over passing props.
Team total over for Seahawks and Patriots as sleeper overs for bettors.
[00:34:30] – Chargers vs Commanders Preview & Prop Targets:
Chargers plan to run more to protect Herbert; Commanders have Jaden Daniels returning, but mobility limited by a knee brace.
Receiving prop caution for Zach Ertz (juice too high); value plays on Debo Samuel receptions.
[00:39:00] – In-Game Updates & Live Bets:
Browns vs Vikings game remains 7-7 late in the first half—defensive stalemate and ugly offensive play.
[00:41:30] – SNF Preview: Patriots vs Bills:
Bills debut new “icy white” uniforms against Patriots.
Both hosts expect a close game; FanDuel and DraftKings post 8.5 line to attract teaser parlay action, but Buffalo is predicted to win by 6 or less.
Prop recommendations: Drake May (Patriots) OVER passing yards, both QBs to throw INTs, James Cook OVER 72.5 rushing yards.
[00:46:00] – Closing Best Bets & Final Thoughts:
Recap of best bet picks from both hosts (Broncos/Eagles over, Kamara over, Giants ML, Derrick Henry carries over, Mayfield passing over, Chargers/Commanders over, DG’s kicker parlay).
Fun fact: “Nine of the Broncos’ last 10 games after a win have gone over the total.”
Closing thoughts: Chargers/Commanders and Buccaneers/Seahawks tabbed as most exciting games, optimism for a kick-back Sunday without Bears’ obligation for Mike.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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