Planning Fallacy

01/12/2024 21 min

Listen "Planning Fallacy"

Episode Synopsis

We discuss the Behavioural Science concept, the Planning Fallacy through a chapter from "Heuristics and Biases", the tendency to underestimate the time needed to complete tasks. It argues that this bias occurs because people focus too much on plans for success and not enough on potential obstacles. A paper titled "On De-bunking ‘Fake News’ in a Post-Truth Era", examines the debate between the principle of the Hiding Hand and the Planning Fallacy. The Hiding Hand suggests that project managers underestimate their own resourcefulness, eventually finding a way out of difficulties, while the Planning Fallacy attributes project failures to overoptimistic estimations. Another paper "Overcoming the Planning Fallacy Through Willpower Effects", examines the impact of implementation intentions on overcoming the planning fallacy. The paper suggests that forming specific plans about when and where to complete a task can help people reduce optimistic biases. A chapter from "Advances in Experimental Social Psychology", delves further into the cognitive, motivational, and social origins of the planning fallacy. It explores several factors contributing to the bias, including temporal perspective, imagery perspective, and social influence.The Entire Behavioural Science Reading List on Amazon

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