Mercantile says they have rarely seen the world in such a disarray. There are wars/disputes in various regions and strange weather conditions all making price forecasts extremely challenging, according to Mercantile. Futures markets are extremely volatile, but also thin. Meanwhile, there is a heightened sense of awareness in the market regarding the risks to Russian and Ukrainian exports, but there also is cognizance that harvest has arrived in Europe. With grain to be distributed, the market cannot stay paralyzed indefinitely. What is surprising to Mercantile is that buyers have been absent when Black Sea wheat is still cheap (Russian is wheat is ~$237/mt FOB) and given the uncertainties regarding forward logistics. Mercantile worries that financial problems are affecting overall demand, and this might render higher priced north American wheat hard to place. However, as far as Canada is concerned, Mercantile doesn’t suggest any cash sales while current weather conditions prevail.

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