Wheat Market Outlook - December 1, 2025

01/12/2025 12 min

Listen "Wheat Market Outlook - December 1, 2025"

Episode Synopsis

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEATCash markets in Saskatchewan are floating around their crop marketing year highs but appear to be sitting comfortable atthe values posted. Stronger basis and some support from futures have helped keep the markets higher. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a fewmonths ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. Canadian and U.S. demand is very strong, and FOB values have been gaining ground. North American exporters will need to remain competitive as large Argentinian and Australian crops are available to the market, and these crops continue to grow with the updated Argentinian and Australian figures. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into thecoming months and watch for any issues in the European and U.S. winter wheat crops which in mostly strong shape as of now. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMDemand remains the big item to watch on durum. Export pace from Canada is slightly behind last year's pace. Western Canadian bids are flattening in the past few weeks and have not seen as much post-harvest market appreciation as spring wheat. We will be watching European winter weather conditions for the durum production regions over there. Demand is anticipated to be less than last year, but markets will watch to see if we maintain anticipated pace or move on either side of it. Statistics Canada crop production estimates are out on Thursday and will be very closely watched byglobal markets to see how the crop shapes up compared to estimates. In the November report, IGC placed durum ending stocks at 8.3 mmt up from 8.0 mmt in its prior estimate for the 2025/26 crop marketing year. This is growth from 7.0 mmt last year and 6.2 mmt the year prior. IGC has Canadian durum production at 7.5 mmt which is up from Statistics Canada’s figures. Stats Canada has the Canadian durum crop at 6.5 mmt in its Sept. 17, 2025 satellite imagery-based report. Statistics Canada will release official estimate of the 2025 crop size totals in its Dec. 4, 2025 report. For reference, the Canadian durum crop record production was 7.8 mmt in 2016. Aside from that, 6.571 would be the second-place record in 2020.