The source outlines a significant paradox in climate science, noting that while models predict uniform warming across the Pacific Ocean, vast swathes of the basin—particularly the equatorial cold tongue—are actually cooling or exhibiting stalled warming trends. This multi-decadal cooling is attributed to powerful natural variability, specifically the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which reinforces stronger-than-expected trade winds that drag frigid water to the surface, creating a persistent La Niña-like pattern. Conversely, the source describes concurrent, extremely warm marine heatwaves (dubbed "Blobs") in the North Pacific, driven by high-pressure ridges that are also linked to the negative PDO. The core assertion is that current climate models consistently underestimate the influence of these natural cycles and wind-cloud feedbacks, leading to global temperature forecasts that have significantly overshot real-world observations for two decades, even as the ocean continues to store immense heat below the surface.

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