Today I am continuing our series on the six principles of human performance. This time we are covering principle #2, Error-likely situations are predictable.After we gain awareness of error and system induced violations, how our brains are wired, and why inattention and complacency are natural; we become stronger at predicting error. We start to see this concept on a macro and a micro scale. This is a beautiful thing because when we can predict error, we are better equipped to defend against it. Sometimes we can even change the system to eliminate error.Last time, we talked about different performance modes. Skill based mode is less prone for error. Rule and knowledge based modes are more prone for error. If people have to follow a bunch of rules within a procedure, there is a chance our brain will forget a step. If that procedure is unavailable, error is highly likely.In a study of this by James Reason, people are 20 times more likely to make an error if a procedure is unavailable. If a worker is unfamiliar with a task, they are 17 times more likely to make an error. If they are in a hurry, 10 times more likely to error.When we look at our systems through this lens, it becomes much more predictable where the next incident will occur. We can’t predict everything, but we can get better at predicting.FatigueIn construction, fatigue is a common, predictable, error-likely situation.Fatigue has the same effect on your brain as alcohol. Although a hard concept to accept, we are often managing a bunch of drunk people. If they were drunk on alcohol, we would most likely kick them off the job (and hopefully get them some help). But fatigue drunkenness is a risk tolerance that our industry commonly accepts.I’ll start with an extreme example. If a paving contractor has to work all day and into the night, to meet the demands of the client, within the limited resources of the company; they could feasibly be awake for 21 hours straight between work demands, the commute and the stuff everyone has to deal with at home. According to WorkSafeBC, that is the blood alcohol equivalent of .08%. The same number the State of Georgia uses to determine if you are too drunk to drive.It’s an extreme example, and not every contractor is working that many hours, but some do in our industry. There are people out there doing road construction whose brains are operating the same way as a legally drunk person. That is a predictable, error-likely situation.A less extreme example, but even more common in our industry, is going 17 hours without sleep. If a worker has to pull a 12-hour shift, drive an hour to and from work, we are up to 14 hours, just with the job aspect alone. But what about their home life? Who doesn’t have crap to do at home? Marriage, parenting, house chores; we all have stuff we are responsible for outside of work too. So, if we give the worker 30 minutes in the morning to get out of bed and hit the road, and 2.5 hours after work to deal with life before they get back in bed, we are up to 17 hours without sleep. In this example, the blood-alcohol equivalent is 0.05%. So, they could pass a breathalyzer but they are one beer away from being legally drunk. In other words, they may not be drunk yet, but the fatigue is still equal to people drinking on the job from a brain-based standpoint. Error is predictable.Everyone has a different relationship with alcohol but I’ll throw myself under the bus for a minute. Intellectually, I know how much I can drink before I do something stupid. But I also understand my brain can’t make great rational decisions when alcohol is introduced to it.Let’s say a person plans to have two drinks. Then they are more relaxed, “oh heck I’ll have one more”. At that point, moderation and good decision making go out the window. Why? Because our brain has stopped making good judgement. Next thing you know, you are drunk while never intending to get that way. It happens, because the alcohol impairs our ability to make good judgements.I’m sure not everyone listening has done that, but I’m also sure some of you know exactly what I’m talking about.From a brain perspective, that’s happening on the jobsite. The more fatigued someone is, the less likely they will make good decisions. If you know people are working a 12, then error-likely situations are predictable. Especially when they are operating under a rule or knowledge based mode.Some companies are very concerned with work-rest schedules. Is a fatigue management plan part of your safety program? If long shifts are predictable in your organization, then fatigue management should be an official system. It would be good to review if fatigue is in the table of contents and how is it actually being managed in the real world.Scope of WorkScope of work is another error-likely situation. The more work flows away from our typical scope, the more likely error becomes. Being unfamiliar with the task, means the worker is 17 times more likely to make a mistake. Combine the fatigue issue we just covered and you can easily predict where we are headed.If we typically build poured in place concrete jobs, and now we have a wood frame job, error is predictable. From a general contractor perspective, we are now managing a completely different set of contractors. We may have mastered formwork, shoring and concrete systems; but now we are dealing with a bunch of carpenters. As the scope of work changes, error becomes predictable.On a smaller scale, the client has some safety rules that are different than most jobs we work on. The rules have become normalized on our other projects. They have become more subconscious. On this current project, we have to stop and think more often and are expected to make good decisions. Because of this, our prefrontal is doing the work and more prone for error.Let’s say we normally work on a scaffold, without personal fall arrest, as long as all the guardrails are in place. Now we are working for a new client and they require personal fall arrest and guardrails at all times. Maybe they have the best intent ever. Maybe they are viewing safety through the lens of layers of defenses. At the same time, we are requiring our workforce to work differently. Someone is going to forget no matter how long the safety orientation was. Instead of getting mad that someone forgot we should expect them to forget.Any change in the scope of work is an error likely situation, both on a macro and a micro scale. Another one is operating different equipment. Normally a worker operates a CAT. Something goes wrong and we send it back to the shop for maintenance. In the meantime, we are provided with a Komatsu. The equipment operates differently, which means error is predictable.Most of the time we use Genie, but this time rental company sent out JLG. Same thing. Change in equipment, controls operate differently, capacity numbers change, approved attachments change, operational rules change; error is predictable.New equipment, new harnesses, new fall anchorage, hydraulic shoring vs. a trench box, new rigging manufacturer, new type of scaffold; all of these things are creating error-likely situations. When we are aware of these things, we can predict them. Then we can implement defenses if we are forced to use new and different stuff. We might even be able to change the system to lessen the amount of different equipment people use. Either way, it’s that style of thinking we need to evo...

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