Retail’s “canary in the coal mine” moment has arrived. The H1 2025 Retail Recap Report reveals a sector under strain from economic volatility, shifting consumer habits, tariff pressures, and rising job losses. In this episode, we unpack the numbers and narratives driving this change, from cautious shoppers and evolving mall spaces to mounting supply chain costs and looming risks for the second half of the year.Drawing on retail performance data, executive insights, and industry forecasts, we connect the dots between consumer psychology, policy impacts, and the strategic crossroads facing retailers. Whether targeting high-income spenders or pivoting to extreme value propositions, businesses must navigate a retail landscape that’s fundamentally shifting beneath their feet.What You’ll Learn in This Episode:1. The State of Consumer SpendingWhy warehouse clubs and dollar stores are thrivingCaution in grocery spending and reluctance to try new brandsHealth and wellness as a persistent priority amid belt-tightening2. Economic Indicators Behind the SlowdownInflation masking weaker sales volumesH1 driven by high-income spenders while low-income visits drop sharplyMcDonald’s reports double-digit declines in low-income customer visits3. Tariff Pressures and Their Consumer Impact$100M in projected costs for Under Armour from tariffs aloneGoldman Sachs estimates tariffs could add $2,400 annually to household expensesPrice impacts on clothing, cars, and fresh produce4. Job Market Shifts in RetailRetail job cuts up 249% YoY, totaling over 80,000 in H1Signs of systemic change beyond seasonal adjustments5. Tourism and Service Sector HeadwindsWTTC forecasts $29B drop in U.S. international tourism spendingU.S. as the only country projected to see a decline in 20256. What to Expect in H2 2025Holiday season uncertainty despite typical seasonal uptickStrategic fork: target the wealthy or pivot hard to value retailInflation, interest rates, and tariffs as ongoing headwindsKey Takeaways:Consumer caution is reshaping where and how people spendTariffs are directly raising household costs and straining retailer marginsJob cuts and slowing tourism add to the sector’s instabilityRetailers face a stark strategic choice for the rest of 2025The middle ground in retail is eroding, redefining economic health indicatorsSubscribe to our podcast for expert analysis on retail trends, economic indicators, and consumer behavior shifts. Visit The Future of Commerce for deeper insights into how market forces and policy decisions are shaping the retail landscape. Share this episode with retail strategists, policy watchers, and anyone navigating the challenges of 2025’s volatile economy.

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