Show Notes – Daily European Opening Briefing (Sept 4, 2025)Tariffs & TradeTrump floated idea tariffs could eventually replace income tax.US warned countries not to back UN shipping emissions deal or risk tariffs.Mexico–US set up high-level groups to tackle cartels, tunnels, financial flows, and smuggling.China imposed anti-dumping duties on US optical fibers.Germany’s Chancellor Merz to host national steel summit, citing tariff pressure on industry.FXDollar steady after JOLTS showed unemployed now exceed vacancies for first time since 2021.Fed’s Waller reiterated support for September cut; Kashkari sees soft landing and room for rates to ease.EUR stuck below 1.17, GBP paused after rebound, JPY flat near 148.Antipodeans muted despite Australian trade surplus.CommoditiesOil subdued as OPEC+ mulls output hike at Sunday meeting.US inventories: crude +0.6m bbl vs exp -2m; gasoline -4.6m bbl.Rosneft to supply 2.5m tons of oil to China via Kazakhstan.Nigeria’s Dangote refinery gasoline unit offline for 2 weeks.Gold eased after hitting record highs earlier; copper pressured by weak Chinese demand.GeopoliticsHamas signaled readiness for Gaza hostage deal; Israel struck Hezbollah in Lebanon.Reports suggest US Secretary of State Rubio won’t block potential West Bank annexations.Trump: US troops to stay in Poland, more possible if requested; to speak with Zelensky soon.Russia rejected Ukraine security guarantees; Macron said coalition ready to back Ukraine if ceasefire.Kim Jong Un met Putin in Beijing, pledged continued support; leaders reaffirmed close ties.UK Chancellor Reeves dismissed £50bn “black hole” forecasts, stuck to fiscal rules ahead of budget.

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