Ep 1 - How to spot manipulation

05/07/2020 11 min Temporada 1 Episodio 1

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Episode Synopsis

Test result of a heart treatment pill:
A = Number of heart attacks reduced by 33%
B = 1.4% fewer heart attacks
C = 95.9% of the test group given placebo has not had heart attacks, while 97.3% of people who used the medicine where heart attack free
Naturally, we would prefer alternative A that decreases the number of heart attacks by a full 33%.
The funny thing is that it's the same medicine and the same study. The results of the "Helsinki Heart Study" were:
4081 patients have been observed for 5 years
2051 received the real medicine. 56 of them had a heart attack
2030 received placebo. 84 of them had a heart attack.
The treatment was successful in 28 additional cases. That is 33% of 84 heart attacks without the medicine. The placebo was ineffective in 84/2030 cases, = 4.1%. The treatment only in 56/2051 = 2.7% of cases. That is a reduction of 1.4%. The treatment made 2051 people attack free = 97.3% - as opposed to the placebo with 95.9%.