A rate cut on paper and a rate rise at the bank counter—no wonder everyone feels blindsided. We open the hood on how mortgage pricing really works, why wholesale swap rates can overpower the OCR, and what last round’s Reserve Bank messaging might have signalled to lenders. The story isn’t just policy; it’s the cost of money in global markets, risk margins, and the speed at which banks move when funding curves jump.We share what we’re hearing from clients across recruitment and services: budgets are stretched, hiring is cautious, and any “recovery” feels thin. That lived reality clashes with the latest rhetoric, especially when inflation measures include unavoidable bills like insurance and council rates. Property prices remain flat to soft in many areas, so a 30-basis-point lift on three-to-five-year fixes hits hard right before Christmas. Meanwhile, six-month rates dipped and some one-year offers held, creating odd pockets of value amid the shock.If you’re choosing between certainty and flexibility, we lay out the trade-offs: shorter terms keep options open if cuts arrive; longer terms smooth cash flow but may cost more if the curve rolls over. First-home buyers still have a path with selective 3.99 percent specials on one- and two-year fixes, subject to criteria. We also offer our calls for early 2026: one of us sees scope for a February move lower if inflation and labour data soften; the other expects a hold while markets seek clearer signals. Either way, the practical game plan is the same—stress test, consider splitting terms, and avoid locking in from fear alone.Ready to navigate the noise with a calm plan? Hit follow, share this with someone weighing a refix, and leave a quick review telling us your rate strategy for the next 12 months. Your take might help someone else choose wisely.Send us a text Support the showBuy your first home in NZ Weekly Webinars You thought it's not possible or the dream is too far away? Come to my webinar and I will show you, you are much closer to your dream, than you think you are! Join Here - https://bit.ly/4m9SL72

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