Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk CFB playoff games and best bets.
Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith broke down the College Football Playoff quarterfinal slate with a focus on matchup specific edges, betting markets, and how recent form intersects with schematic realities. Coming off a 4 0 run on their last two podcast episodes, the discussion centered on four games and how defense, trench play, and quarterback trust shape both sides and totals. The opening focus was Miami versus Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, a matchup both viewed as driven by elite defenses and pace control. Ohio State entered as a nine point favorite, but Smith emphasized Miami’s ability to dominate the line of scrimmage, pointing to pressure rates, sack production, and third down efficiency. While expecting Ohio State to win outright, he leaned toward Miami covering and consistently highlighted unders across quarters and the full game, citing run game inefficiency on both sides and a likely field position battle. Warner echoed the correlation between strong defensive underdogs and unders, particularly on a neutral field. The conversation then shifted to Oregon versus Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, described as the most difficult game to handicap. Smith leaned slightly toward Oregon based on quarterback trust and offensive balance but stressed concerns about receiver health and Texas Tech’s defensive success rate and field position metrics. The consensus framed the game as close to a toss up, with Oregon needing a clean performance and Texas Tech facing pressure to protect its quarterback and avoid one dimensional offense. Alabama versus Indiana in the Rose Bowl generated the strongest stance, with Smith calling for a potential Indiana blowout. He cited Alabama’s struggles running the ball, poor field position numbers, and vulnerability to pressure against an Indiana defense built to attack the pass. Indiana’s ability to protect its quarterback and force Alabama into predictable situations was presented as the defining edge, with Indiana projected to control the game and win by double digits. The final matchup featured Georgia against Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl, a rematch that Smith viewed as lopsided in Georgia’s favor. Drawing heavily on the first meeting and Georgia’s second half adjustments, he pointed to Ole Miss’s inability to stop the run and Georgia’s depth and preparation advantage. With Georgia rested, schematically familiar, and trending defensively, Smith projected a decisive win and made Georgia minus six and a half his best bet. Warner agreed on Georgia and added his own best bet on the Miami Ohio State under, reinforcing the theme that defense and game script would dictate the quarterfinals.




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