Manfred Hübner on Covid 19, ‘Mad Stock Markets’ & Behavioral Finance

08/03/2023 39 min
Manfred Hübner on Covid 19, ‘Mad Stock Markets’ & Behavioral Finance

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Episode Synopsis

Join me and Manfred Hübner for a conversation on why global stock markets are pushing towards all-time highs, whilst the underlying economic outlook expects the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Manfred is the creator of the sentix Global Investor Sentiment Survey and one of the leading experts on Behavioral Finance in Europe. 

Manfred explains, Behavioral Finance studies the psychology behind investment decisions. Fact is, humans can’t make 100% rational decisions (see Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Same applies when it comes to investing money, even if done by institutional investors and market professionals. Emotions ‘get in the way’ and compete with rational thought processes. The way human brains evolved is key to understanding human decision-making processes and actions. The Limbic System (mainly emotions), engages at the same time as the Neocortex (mainly conscious thought and reasoning) stand in competition. This can result in less conducive decisions or mistakes.

The sentix sentiment index indicate investors' market expectations over the next month. It reflects investors' emotions which fluctuate between fear and greed. Negative sentiment extremes are usually an immediate indication of a price recovery, whereas very high optimism is often a warning sign of impending price weakness. The sentiment indices should therefore be interpreted in a contrary way. Longer-term reversal points are indicated by the Sentiment in combination with Strategic Bias. The Strategic Bias (as a 6-month expectation) should point in the opposite direction of the Sentiment. The sentix Sentiment is obtained from the weekly sentix Survey (sentix Global Investor Survey) of currently more than 5,000 private and institutional investors, whose estimations of 14 financial markets are collected (source: sentix sentiment index website). 

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