With the most consequential US election in decades looming, Medley Advisors are releasing three discussions between Madelynn Einhorn and renowned electoral experts. In this podcast, Madelynn asks the big question going into 5 November: can we trust the polls? After all, in 2020, Joe Biden led Donald Trump by 8 points but won by only 4.5 and by just 43,000 votes across three states. What went wrong?To answer these questions, she spoke to Michael Bailey, professor of American government at the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University and author of Polling at a Crossroads."The basic problem is that, within the demographic group, you get a non-representative sample," he says. "You just do, because they're non-representative in the sense that they're willing to talk to pollsters versus everyone else". To obtain a 4,000-respondent sample for its March 2024 battleground-states poll, the New York Times had to try 400,000 people. "The people who answered that poll, in layman's terms, they're weird, right?"

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