Today's October 15, 2025. We're seeing a dizzying convergence of high-stakes diplomacy and political turmoil across the continent, focusing first on the European Union's efforts to project influence abroad and shore up its own defenses. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is concluding her “tour de force” of the Western Balkans, beginning the day in Belgrade to meet Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. While the visit is officially an attempt to lift the spirits of countries seeking EU accession, officials admit it is largely optics ahead of the November enlargement package. Crucially, the meeting with Vučić is seen as a delicate task, as Serbia is too important to ignore but too unpredictable to trust, with Brussels needing to engage Belgrade to prevent its further drift toward Moscow. Simultaneously, NATO defense ministers are gathering in Brussels to address threats like drones and Russian jets in European airspace. Following this, EU defense ministers will convene to discuss the Defence Readiness Roadmap, a key component of the Readiness 2030 plan. However, this push for strategic autonomy faces immediate friction, as Berlin is urging a focus on industrial coordination and NATO coherence, effectively pouring cold water on the Commission's attempts to establish new EU-level structures for defense policy.Meanwhile, domestic political fires are raging from Westminster to Paris and Berlin. In France, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has temporarily secured his government's survival from censure motions by making a critical concession to the Socialists: agreeing to freeze the unpopular 2023 law raising the retirement age until the 2028 presidential election. Across the Channel, the UK government is battling dual crises. In the Commons, the political focus is fixed on the China spy row, with the opposition demanding the government publish the crucial evidence that preceded the dropping of charges. Adding to Prime Minister Kemi Badenoch’s difficulties, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has publicly conceded that tax increases and even spending cuts are being considered to address budget shortfalls, which is causing alarm among her political allies. Furthermore, Germany is facing unexpected disarray over its own defense agenda, as a highly-anticipated cross-factional compromise on a new compulsory military service (Wehrdienst) collapsed dramatically, sparking political infighting and prompting criticism that the chaos benefits Russia. This backdrop of European instability is compounded by global economic threats, as US President Donald Trump is “very unhappy with Spain” over its defense spending levels and is reportedly mulling trade punishment via tariffs.

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