two distinct but complementary analyses. The first examines the acute political weakening of Donald Trump, evidenced by a significant legislative defeat concerning the Epstein files and a growing list of policy and personnel setbacks. This suggests his authority within the Republican party is waning and that he is operating as a "lame duck" president with dismal approval ratings. The second analysis presents a long-term, structural argument that the American Dream—framed as a valuable "mobility option"—has decayed significantly since the mid-20th century. This decay is driven by falling probabilities of upward mobility and soaring costs ("strike prices") for advancement, such as education and housing. This erosion of hope has created a vacuum filled by speculative financial behavior and political extremism, as citizens seek alternative paths to advancement in a system that no longer reliably rewards methodical effort. Together, these analyses paint a picture of immediate political flux occurring against a backdrop of deep-seated socio-economic frustration.

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