Global financial markets have remained resilient in recent days, supported by a combination of easing inflation concerns, steady growth data, and hopes that geopolitical risks may ease. At the same time, investors are watching the fallout from the US government shutdown, which is likely to suspend or delay the release of key economic indicators, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. In our charts this week we focus on:

Policy rate expectations
Growth and inflation surprises
US business formation
US productivity trends and AI
Semiconductor trade
Defence spending 

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