ZARZA We are Zarza, the prestigious firm behind major projects in information technology.
Listen "Crack The Code Hawthorne Effect Avoid Delusions Of Grandeur"
Episode Synopsis
I @josuevizcay
delve into the intricacies of sports betting, discussing the importance of tracking performance, understanding cognitive biases like the Dunning-Kruger effect, and the role of probability theory in predicting outcomes.
He shares insights on how to avoid common pitfalls in betting, emphasizing the need for clarity and self-awareness to succeed.
The conversation also touches on the dynamics of NFL games, the impact of special teams, and strategies for monetizing sports outcomes.
Dunning–Kruger Effect
- This is the best-known term.
- It refers to a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a domain overestimate their competence, often because they lack the knowledge to recognize their own mistakes.
- It doesn’t necessarily involve delusions, but it explains why someone might think they’re much more skilled at decision-making than they really are.
Illusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias)
- Sometimes called the “better-than-average effect.”
- People consistently rate their own decision-making, intelligence, or skills as above average, even when objective measures show otherwise.
3.
Delusional Disorder / Grandiosity (Clinical Context)
- When the overestimation of ability moves beyond bias and into fixed false beliefs that resist contrary evidence, it becomes clinical.
- In psychiatry, this would be described as grandiose delusions, a symptom sometimes seen in bipolar disorder or schizophrenia.
4.
Overconfidence Bias (Decision Science / Finance)
- In economics and behavioral finance, “overconfidence bias” is the specific term for people placing too much faith in their own judgments, leading to poor decisions and risky behavior.
delve into the intricacies of sports betting, discussing the importance of tracking performance, understanding cognitive biases like the Dunning-Kruger effect, and the role of probability theory in predicting outcomes.
He shares insights on how to avoid common pitfalls in betting, emphasizing the need for clarity and self-awareness to succeed.
The conversation also touches on the dynamics of NFL games, the impact of special teams, and strategies for monetizing sports outcomes.
Dunning–Kruger Effect
- This is the best-known term.
- It refers to a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a domain overestimate their competence, often because they lack the knowledge to recognize their own mistakes.
- It doesn’t necessarily involve delusions, but it explains why someone might think they’re much more skilled at decision-making than they really are.
Illusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias)
- Sometimes called the “better-than-average effect.”
- People consistently rate their own decision-making, intelligence, or skills as above average, even when objective measures show otherwise.
3.
Delusional Disorder / Grandiosity (Clinical Context)
- When the overestimation of ability moves beyond bias and into fixed false beliefs that resist contrary evidence, it becomes clinical.
- In psychiatry, this would be described as grandiose delusions, a symptom sometimes seen in bipolar disorder or schizophrenia.
4.
Overconfidence Bias (Decision Science / Finance)
- In economics and behavioral finance, “overconfidence bias” is the specific term for people placing too much faith in their own judgments, leading to poor decisions and risky behavior.
More episodes of the podcast ESBC NFLAnd Sports Betting Podcast Network
Crack The Code College Football
05/10/2025
In God we trust