Mercer's 2025 Economic and Market Outlook forecasts a global economic slowdown following aggressive interest rate hikes. Developed economies are expected to see modest growth, while Japan shows stronger prospects due to increased domestic demand. China faces deflationary pressures and uncertain growth, contingent on government stimulus. Inflation is projected to normalize in developed markets but remains a concern in China. The report suggests an overweight position in Japanese equities and yen, while recommending caution with global high-yield bonds and a neutral stance on emerging market equities pending clarity on US trade policies. Risks include underestimated lagged effects of monetary policy and the impact of potential US tariffs.

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