This episode provides a strategic update on the global cocoa market as of February 23, 2025. Amid tightening inventories, slowing exports, and currency-driven volatility, cocoa prices continue to face significant upward pressure while market players adjust to evolving supply-demand dynamics.Key Themes Discussed:Ivory Coast Cocoa Export TrendsIvory Coast cocoa exports have slowed, recording 20% year-over-year growth, a notable decline from the 35% rise reported in December 2024.Since October, 1,340,000 metric tons of cocoa have been shipped, while global inventory tightening continues to support prices despite softening demand signals.Weather Conditions and Yield ProspectsCentral regions in Ivory Coast have benefited from favorable rainfall, improving yield prospects for the upcoming mid-crop season.Nevertheless, dry conditions and persistent Harmattan winds remain a threat to cocoa tree health.Production forecasts for 2024–25 have been raised to 2.2 million metric tons, but weather-related risks continue to loom.Ghana’s Cocoa Sector ChallengesGhana’s Cocoa Board revised its 2024–25 production estimate downward to 650,000 metric tons, down from 700,000 metric tons.This follows a 23-year low harvest in 2023–24 at just 425,000 metric tons, driven by severe weather and widespread crop disease.Global Cocoa Market VolatilityStrengthening of the British pound and persistent high cocoa prices have led manufacturers like Hershey and Mondelez to reformulate products and prepare for demand adjustments.The International Cocoa Organization has raised the global cocoa deficit forecast for 2023–24 to 478,000 metric tons — the largest supply gap in over six decades.Cocoa Liquor Market Growth OutlookThe cocoa liquor market is projected to expand from USD 23.4 billion in 2023 to USD 38.7 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 5.3%.North America’s demand surged by 30.2%, fueled by a growing appetite for premium, antioxidant-rich cocoa products across food, bakery, and cosmetics sectors.Strategic Implications:Ongoing Supply TightnessAdverse weather, crop diseases, and logistical challenges are expected to maintain upward pressure on cocoa prices throughout 2025.Consumer Demand Shift Toward Premium ProductsRising interest in premium cocoa applications continues to drive innovation and demand across multiple sectors.Manufacturer Strategy ShiftsRecipe modifications, cost management efforts, and cautious demand outlooks are becoming critical strategies for chocolate producers.Macro-Economic PressuresCurrency fluctuations, particularly in the British pound and U.S. dollar, are amplifying cocoa market volatility and influencing global trade flows.

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