This episode offers a sharp analysis of the latest shifts in the global cocoa market as of March 30, 2025. Tight supply forecasts, mixed production results, and sustainability efforts are shaping the industry’s immediate future amid mounting climate and economic pressures.Key Themes Discussed:Ivory Coast: Production Pressures Mount Ivory Coast’s mid-crop yield is projected at 400,000 metric tons—a 9% decline year-on-year—amid climate volatility and the spread of swollen shoot disease. Export growth slowed to 12%, sharply down from December’s 35% pace. To mitigate risks, the Coffee and Cocoa Council has capped international cocoa sales at 1,300,000 metric tons, down from 1,700,000 metric tons.Ghana: Output Revisions Signal Supply Tightening Ghana’s Cocobod has revised its 2024–25 production forecast downward by 5% to 617,500 metric tons. This adjustment continues the trend of declining output from key producers, adding a bullish element to the global price landscape despite broader surplus projections.Nigeria: Rising Exports Add Bearish Sentiment Nigeria's cocoa exports surged by 27% year-on-year in January, reaching 46,970 metric tons. This increase strengthens Nigeria’s position in global supply, contributing to downward price pressure even as West African output declines.Global Dynamics: Volatile Surplus vs. Weakening Demand A global cocoa surplus of 142,000 metric tons is forecasted for the 2024–25 period, reversing the sharp 441,000 metric ton deficit reported for 2023–24. However, cocoa grindings—a proxy for industrial demand—fell across Europe (-5.3%), Asia (-0.5%), and North America (-1.2%) amid high cocoa price environments.Costa Rica: Promoting Cocoa Sustainability In a positive development, the Center for Biological Diversity donated over 40 acres to the Association Commission of Indigenous Women of Talamanca, fostering artisanal chocolate production and sustainable agricultural practices among indigenous communities.Strategic Implications:Fragile Global Supply Chain: Despite surplus forecasts, production challenges in Ivory Coast and Ghana hint at a fragile supply balance, maintaining upside risks to pricing.Demand Risks Persist: Sustained high cocoa prices are impacting grindings, suggesting weakening end-market demand that could dampen prices if production stabilizes.Focus on Sustainable Growth: Grassroots initiatives like Costa Rica’s cocoa land donation illustrate rising importance of sustainability and biodiversity preservation in global supply chains.

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