Welcome to our deep dive into the complex interplay between Canadian monetary policy and the Toronto real estate market as of early May 2025. The economic air is thick with uncertainty, primarily driven by unpredictable US trade policies, which prompted the Bank of Canada to pause its rate-cutting cycle in April after seven consecutive reductions. While headline inflation has moderated and affordability metrics show some year-over-year improvement, persistent core inflation, a weakening labour market, and plunging consumer confidence paint a challenging picture. This report unpacks the Bank of Canada's current stance, analyzes the conflicting economic signals, explores the sluggish Toronto housing and rental market trends, and examines how anticipated future rate cuts might influence borrowing costs and market activity in a climate where economic anxiety currently overshadows improved affordability. Join us as we navigate the crosscurrents shaping Canada's financial landscape and its impact on one of the country's most vital housing markets.

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