Lumber prices surged 23% year-over-year in April, reviving cost pressures that rattled builders earlier in the pandemic. The spike, driven by sawmill closures and fears of higher tariffs on Canadian imports, is squeezing margins for major developers like Lennar, D.R. Horton, and Toll Brothers. The U.S. currently imposes a 14.5% duty on Canadian softwood lumber—accounting for 85% of American imports—but that rate could more than double following a regulatory review expected by August.

The volatility comes as HUD Secretary Scott Turner outlines a bold deregulation agenda. Speaking at the T3 Leadership Summit, Turner pledged to ease red tape, open underused federal lands for construction, and eliminate the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing rule. Turner says the goal is to unlock new supply by empowering local governments and encouraging self-sufficiency. Meanwhile, HUD faces proposed budget cuts of $33.6 billion, raising questions about how effectively the agency can stimulate new building while federal funding shrinks. Together, rising material costs and shifting federal policy are setting the stage for a turbulent second half of 2025 in the housing sector.

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