Podcast Notes: DeepSeek R2 - The Tech Stock "Atom Bomb"OverviewDeepSeek R2 could heavily impact tech stocks when released (April or May 2025)Could threaten OpenAI, Anthropic, and major tech companiesUS tech market already showing weakness (Tesla down 50%, NVIDIA declining)Cost ClaimsDeepSeek R2 claims to be 40 times cheaper than competitorsSuggests AI may not be as profitable as initially thoughtCould trigger a "race to zero" in AI pricingNVIDIA ConcernsNVIDIA's high stock price depends on GPU shortage continuingIf DeepSeek can use cheaper, older chips efficiently, threatens NVIDIA's modelIronically, US chip bans may have forced Chinese companies to innovate more efficientlyThe Cloud Computing ComparisonAI could follow cloud computing's path (AWS → Azure → Google → Oracle)Becoming a commodity with shrinking profit marginsBasic AI services could keep getting cheaper ($20/month now, likely lower soon)Open Source AdvantageLike Linux vs Windows, open source AI could dominateMost databases and programming languages are now open sourceClosed systems may restrict innovationGlobal AI LandscapeGrowing distrust of US tech companies globallyConcerns about data privacy and government surveillanceCountries might develop their own AI ecosystemsEU could lead in privacy-focused AI regulationAI Reality CheckLLMs are "sophisticated pattern matching," not true intelligenceCompare to self-checkout: automation helps but humans still neededAI will be a tool that changes work, not a replacement for humansInvestment ImpactTech stocks could lose significant value in next 2-6 monthsChip makers might see reduced demandInvestment could shift from AI hardware to integration companies or other sectorsConclusionDeepSeek R2 could trigger "cascading failure" in big techMore focus on local, decentralized AI solutionsHuman-in-the-loop approach likely to prevailGlobal tech landscape could look very different in 10 years
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