We’re in the midst of the holidays—always a good time for reflection. And this week that means holding Pete the Planner accountable for bold predictions he made in January about the economy and U.S. fiscal policy in 2025. Pete hit a bunch of these out of the park—especially those related to Trumponomics—and he whiffed on several others. Because he’s a big-hearted guy not afraid of making mistakes, Pete this week presents his predictions for 2026, including positive portents for nuclear energy, his advance whiff of a stale housing market and a tough prognosis for higher education.

His pick for the biggest story of 2026 might require some advance explanation. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to decide soon whether President Trump’s emergency tariffs levied earlier this year are invalid. If the justices find that the president exceeded his authority by using emergency powers to impose tariffs on nearly every U.S. trading partner—which, to review, were paid by the companies that imported the products, not the countries or companies from which they came—the importers could be entitled to big refunds. As The Washington Post has reported, unwinding almost a year of Trump’s core economic policy likely could have serious consequences for the government’s finances and on the bottom lines
of companies throughout the U.S. economy. It’s impossible to know how much money ultimately would be in play, but estimates of how much the U.S. had collected in emergency tariffs were close to $90 billion when the court heard arguments in early November.

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