Israeli-Palestine Conflict 13. The Black Swan Scenario. An End of the Conflict?

13/05/2021 58 min
Israeli-Palestine Conflict 13.  The Black Swan Scenario. An End of the Conflict?

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Episode Synopsis

Send us a textOne morning we woke up and Soviet Union was gone.  None of us saw this coming. When I started teaching in the 1970s, I told students there were three conflicts that would go on forever:  Northern Ireland, South Africa, and Israel-Palestine.    But two of those are resolved: Northern Ireland and South Africa. Is it possible that the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict could be resolved short of a catastrophe?  I am going to discuss four scenarios that work elsewhere but will not work here.  Those scenarios are explained more fully on Deep Blue under the title “Strategic Options in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.”   Suggestion: download a map of the West Bank with Areas A and B and C outlined.  A and B are where Palestinians live.  C is where most Jewish settlements are.  When the Israelis talk of annexing the West Bank, most mean Area C.   I discuss the difference between Ashkenazi and Sephardic Jews.  Today the balance of those two groups is about 48-48.  But what if the Ashkenazim began to leave and the balance shifted to 60-40 in favor of the Sephardic Jews?  What would that mean?  The professor I mentioned is Ian Lustick.  He is very good.