Listen "Israeli-Palestine Conflict 13. The Black Swan Scenario. An End of the Conflict? "
Episode Synopsis
Send us a textOne morning we woke up and Soviet Union was gone. None of us saw this coming. When I started teaching in the 1970s, I told students there were three conflicts that would go on forever: Northern Ireland, South Africa, and Israel-Palestine. But two of those are resolved: Northern Ireland and South Africa. Is it possible that the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict could be resolved short of a catastrophe? I am going to discuss four scenarios that work elsewhere but will not work here. Those scenarios are explained more fully on Deep Blue under the title “Strategic Options in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.” Suggestion: download a map of the West Bank with Areas A and B and C outlined. A and B are where Palestinians live. C is where most Jewish settlements are. When the Israelis talk of annexing the West Bank, most mean Area C. I discuss the difference between Ashkenazi and Sephardic Jews. Today the balance of those two groups is about 48-48. But what if the Ashkenazim began to leave and the balance shifted to 60-40 in favor of the Sephardic Jews? What would that mean? The professor I mentioned is Ian Lustick. He is very good.
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