In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ and Kyle break down the brutal math behind OpenAI’s path to a $500B revenue future—unpacking how much would realistically need to come from consumer subscriptions, B2B APIs, advertising, and commerce. Using comparisons to Netflix, Meta, Google, Amazon, and Snapchat, they map out the limits of each revenue stream and debate whether OpenAI can ever become both the world’s largest subscription business and a top-tier ad platform. Along the way, they detour into business blunders (including Kyle getting locked out of LinkedIn for being “too efficient”).—LINKS: Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/klook-ipo-s1-breakdownhttps://openai.com/index/openai-amd-strategic-partnership/https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/companies-pouring-billions-advance-ai-infrastructure-2025-10-06/https://www.reuters.com/technology/openais-first-half-revenue-rises-16-about-43-billion-information-reports-2025-09-30/https://www.notoriousplg.ai/p/notorious-openais-revenue-breakdownhttps://evoca.tv/netflix-user-statistics/https://www.yaguara.co/amazon-prime-statistics/https://www.cnbc.com/select/amazon-prime-is-it-worth-it/https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SNAP/snap/revenuehttps://www.businessofapps.com/data/youtube-statistics/https://saad-report.rippling.com/result/https://x.com/artman/status/1988733285086687729?s=46https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/11/introducing-iphone-pocket-a-beautiful-way-to-wear-and-carry-iphone/—RELATED EPISODES:Grindr’s $0 CAC Secret from the CFO Who Launched Disney+ | Vanna Krantzhttps://youtu.be/ijFIMmtpLNwThe Product-Market Fit Treadmill | Brian Balfour Explainshttps://youtu.be/I5UqGlBOdoA—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:25 Sponsors – Metronome, Pulley00:03:53 Return from Sponsors and Show Kickoff00:04:09 Klook IPO and the Global Tours Market00:09:53 Real World MBA and Startup Lessons00:10:27 OpenAI’s Path to $500 Billion00:11:02 Revenue Makeup – ChatGPT, API, and Anthropic00:12:15 Benchmarking Consumer Subscription Giants00:13:23 Ads, Take Rate, and Diversification Strategy00:19:27 Scaling to $200B in Subscriptions00:20:06 Meta-Sized Ad Ambitions for OpenAI00:21:35 Flash Forward – Can OpenAI Really Get There?00:22:45 YouTube, Tokens, and Streaming Models00:23:49 CJ’s Recruiting Venture – Mostly Talent00:29:28 Building the Whole Finance Department00:31:29 Experimental Pricing Model Proposal00:33:01 Iterating on Warm Intro Structure00:35:23 CJ’s Preferred Recruiting Model00:36:15 Report from Rippling – Software as a Disservice00:39:40 LinkedIn Lockout: Kyle’s Wake-Up Call00:40:40 CJ’s Bookmarking Blunder & Twitter UI Rant00:41:27 Social Media Game Push – NYT, LinkedIn, Facebook00:42:27 Apple’s “iPhone Pocket” & Borat Comparison00:43:00 Final Banter: Satchels & Sign-Off—SPONSORS:Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comPulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics

Ver todos los episodios